Tourism was among the victims
last week as conflict and tensions across North Africa and the Middle East
surged, capped by violent clashes between opposing factions in Syria and Egypt.
One look at the week's headlines -- violence
in Syria, arrests in Egypt, Israel threatening to quash Iran's nuclear program
-- and it was clear that retailers, suppliers and tourism boards dedicated to
promoting and selling North Africa and the Middle East faced a daunting public
relations crisis.
"There's always a
correlation between media coverage and bookings," said Malia Asfour, director of
the Jordan Tourism Board North America.
Jordan, where tourism accounts for 14% of gross domestic product,
saw tourist arrivals from the U.S., its No. 1 source market, drop 12.9% in 2011
compared with 2010. (
Click here to view of a map of the drop in U.S.
arrivals in select Middle East countries.)
Jordan, which has experienced relative peace and calm of late and
was hoping to emerge from its 2011 tourism slump this year, is exemplary of how
damaging it can be to reside in the wrong neighborhood.
"I'm hopeful that 2012 is going to be better than 2011," Asfour
said. "I'm counting on 2013 [tourism numbers] being back to 2010."
Jordan borders Syria, for which the U.S. Department of State on
Feb. 6 issued a travel warning advising U.S. citizens to leave Syria immediately
due to escalating violence and a deteriorating security situation there. The
same day, the State Department suspended all embassy operations after a
particularly bloody weekend. News media reported more than 200 deaths due to
violence in the city of Homs, a figure cited by opposition groups that have been
rising up against the government of President Bashar al-Assad since March 2011.
While Syria is not a dominant tourism
destination in the region, the clashes come just as the country had been
starting to improve its tourism profile and increasingly attract visitors.
Between 2005 and 2010, Syria saw a 14% year-over-year growth rate in tourism,
according to the Ministry of Tourism.
Meanwhile, tensions in Egypt, one of the region's most mainstream
tourist destinations, have also been escalating. Last week, Egyptian authorities
announced that 19 Americans working for nongovernmental organizations would be
prosecuted, prompting the U.S. to threaten to withhold $1.5 billion in annual
aid aimed at helping Egypt transition to democracy.
That threat followed news reports that two female U.S. tourists
and their Egyptian guide had been kidnapped by armed men in Egypt's Sinai
Peninsula, then later released.
"Anyone
who tells you that Egypt business is up is obviously being facetious," said
Ashish Sanghrajka, president of Big Five Tours & Expeditions. Sanghrajka
said Big Five's Egypt business was still off pre-revolution, 2010 levels by a
"considerable amount."
Egypt's tourism
industry suffered a major blow in 2011 following the at-times violent Jan. 25
revolution, which resulted in the ouster of former president Hosni Mubarak. The
country welcomed about 54% fewer U.S. tourists in 2011 than in 2010, according
to the Egyptian Tourist Authority.
And
while prospects for 2012 appear brighter than 2011, "right now, with Egypt, it
really is day to day," Sanghrajka said. "There's definitely a demand for Egypt.
We're getting calls from people who want to go, but they're being very cautious.
They're just waiting for the elections. They're waiting for all of [the
political strife] to subside."
Indeed, as
with Jordan, those who sell Egypt last week were predicting a recovery toward
the end of this year and into 2013.
"Egypt
is hurting," said Abercrombie & Kent CEO Geoffrey Kent. Nevertheless, he
predicted, "Egypt will come back."
Kent
said he anticipates a turnaround by this time next year.
Bright spots amid turmoilDespite the unrest and uprisings, not all destinations in the
region have been hit equally hard. For example, agents and tour operators report
positive bookings to Israel, Turkey and Morocco.
"I find that my people that go to Israel, they're going anyway,
regardless of what's going on, and there are many people like that," said Pamela
Jacobs, a vacation planner at Los Angeles-based TravelStore who is bullish on
the region.
"There are things in the
Middle East that are nowhere else in the world, and there are people that are
going to go see them," Jacobs said.
Israel
welcomed 3.4 million tourists in 2011, compared with 3.45 million in 2010, which
Haim Gutin, the Israel Tourism Ministry's tourism commissioner for North and
South America, described as "pretty incredible in view of the Arab Spring on top
of the global economic downturn. Tourism to Israel from the U.S. fell 6%, to
611,000, in 2011 compared to 650,000 U.S. travelers in 2010."
Gutin added: "The concept of 'Who is still
going?' is just so far from reality. The hotels are as full as they normally are
in February, restaurants are bursting, flights are full and all is completely
unchanged."
Sanghrajka said that Morocco
has actually benefited from the displacement of travelers to places like Egypt.
"Morocco is where we've been surprised,"
Sanghrajka said. "There has been a tremendous increase in inquiries and
bookings."
Turkey, too, appears to have
successfully removed itself from the negative press of its neighbors to the
south.
"We do terrific business with
Turkey," said John Burgess, manager of the leisure travel division at Preferred
Travel in Naples, Fla. "That hasn't been affected in the least."
And there are travelers who will continue to
travel to Egypt and Jordan, regardless of tensions.
For example, A&K said it sees three categories of Americans
that are still determined to head to these destinations no matter what:
politically aware travelers who want to show support for the democracy movement;
returning travelers who want to be among the first to see the newly restored
Avenue of the Sphinxes in Luxor; and first-time travelers attracted by the
exceptional values.
A bumpy road
aheadIt's impossible to
predict just where all the hostility and political wrangling in the Middle East
is headed. In the meantime, parts of the tourism industry that are invested in
the region find themselves in wait-and-see mode.
"We're not yet seeing a full recovery to the region, but we are
seeing a few positive signs," noted Mike Schields, managing director for groups
and emerging markets at the Globus family of brands.
Globus is projecting that it will be flat overall for the Middle
East in 2012, he said.
"It's still
relatively early in our booking year, so that could change," he said. "Egypt is
down fairly substantially from the pace it was on in 2010, but we're seeing
increases in business to Israel and Jordan, both religious and secular [travel],
to offset that difference."
Despite
everything, Globus remains "bullish on the region," according to a company
statement, having even introduced a new six-day Wonders of Jordan product for
2012. "We have plans to expand our vacation offering even more in the coming
year," the company stated.
A key turning
point, Sanghrajka said, will be the presidential elections in Egypt in June.
"What has to happen now is these elections,
and they need to actually go through and finish the process," he said. "We can
all stand here on the side and cringe in terms of who comes into power, but we
can't control that. What tourists have to see is that the will of the people is
being done."
Sanghrajka said that once the
elections have been held, there will be an acceleration in the return of
tourists.
In the meantime, Burgess said,
"Honestly, I wouldn't go [to the region] now. It's a comfort issue. The most
important aspect of a client-agent relationship is trust. I've had a couple
people ask if I would go now, and I've been perfectly honest: I wouldn't."