Carnival Corp. 2020 Outlook

Carnival Corporation provided adjusted earnings guidance for 2020 on today’s Q4 and year-end earnings call from $4.30 to $4.60 per share, compared to 2019 adjusted earnings of $4.40 per share.

Carnival President and CEO Arnold Donald said that he expects cruise revenues to be up approximately 5 percent on capacity growth year-over-year of 6.6 percent.

At this point, he said, the company is entering 2020 with a record booked occupancy position but at slightly lower prices.

Donald noted the headwinds Carnival has faced this year, some of which will continue into 2020, including the impact of Cuba being off limits to cruise calls, events in the Arabian Gulf, Hurricane Dorian, unscheduled drydocks and ship delays, compounded by a decline in market demand in Continental Europe, particularly Germany, while Southern Europe is also challenging.

Noting these as “unusual events,” Donald said they had had a $0.23 negative impact on 2019 earnings.

In order to improve the market situation and accelerate demand growth in Southern Europe, Donald said that two older ships are being removed from the Costa fleet in 2020, following the recent introduction of the new Costa Smeralda. He said the new ship is much more efficient than the ships being removed.

In the UK, Carnival has been able to grow revenue yield despite Brexit, and Donald noted that P&O Cruises’s New Iona is booking at a significant premium over other ships on comparable itineraries.

In North America, the Caribbean is strong and so is Alaska. However, Alaska is seeing what he called an over-concentration of capacity and will need to absorb another industrywide capacity increase of 10 percent in 2020, on top of a 15 percent capacity increase in 2019.

As for China, Donald said Carnival will focus on its new joint venture cruise line. Meanwhile, he said, Costa had a good year in China in 2019 and looks forward to another good year in 2020, with more direct business, but is also happy with its charter model.

Carnival will essentially have six new ships in six different markets for the full year in 2020, starting with the Carnival Panorama, which just entered service on the West Cost, the Costa Smeralda in Southern Europe; P&O’s Iona in the UK; the Enchanted Princess in Europe and North America; the Mardi Gras in Florida; and the Costa Firenze in China.

According to Donald, Carnival is also accelerating marketing and media spend in all of its key markets to drive demand in 2020.